On Polymarket, running on the Ethereum blockchain, 53% of participants now believe that U.S. President Donald Trump will win the hotly contested 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, reducing the chances for Vice President Kamala Harris.
In the overall betting market, Trump now has a 53% chance of becoming the next U.S. president in 2024. This shift is the result of a single bet by an unknown bettor who joined Polymarket three days ago.
On #Polymarket, #Trump‘s chances in the US Presidential Election rose to 53%, surpassing #Harris.
3 days ago, someone registered on #Polymarket and withdrew 205K $USDC from #Binance to buy 417,252 ‘Yes’ shares for #Trump in the election.
Now, this person has an unrealized… pic.twitter.com/GjAlGORjr7
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 22, 2024
The user pulled 205,000 USDC out of Binance and bought 417,252 ‘Yes’ shares for Trump at Polymarket. Trump’s odds are at 53% now, so if this investor were to cash in, they would already be sitting on an unrealized net profit of $15k, demonstrating the kind of huge risk/opportunity that gambling liquidity decentralized markets open up for betting over political outcomes.
Can Prediction Markets Influence Actual Election Outcomes?
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Polymarket raises some interesting questions about whether or not these platforms can steer election results in real-time. Theoretically, these platforms set prices and odds that represent the collective sentiment, which could give a glimpse into public opinion—and more importantly, maybe even alter behavior at ballot boxes.
These predictions can influence voters, making some believe that one candidate has a better chance to win than another. This might even create a bandwagon effect or at least heighten an existing preference for who might take a seat in the White House.
Wow, this is crazy! https://t.co/8WW942IB8a
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2024
Furthermore, the media often spotlights one candidate over another, which in turn can influence voters unsure about their decision. Such an incident was observed in late July when Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, criticized Google for showing bias against one candidate over the other. However, it is important to remember that while these markets can act as barometers of existing trends and potentially even amplify chances, they remain unproven tools in predicting election outcomes directly.
What a Trump Victory Could Mean for the Crypto Market?
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The crypto market could be affected by a possible Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election, as his administration has publicly shown support for the crypto industry. Trump’s bullish stance on economic expansion and, by extension, looser regulation might ultimately be a net benefit for the cryptocurrency environment as a whole—mainly if there is recognition at some level within the administration that innovation and fintech are top priorities in terms of global growth. However, with greater institutional adoption and regulatory frameworks in the markets ahead, this could cause markets to face further volatility.
