As per the assessment of Bloomberg analysts, the probability of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission approving a spot Ethereum ETF by May has been substantially diminished. The SEC’s silence and delay have prompted analysts to reconsider the viability of a spot Ethereum ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) approval. A top-tier ETF expert predicts a 30% possibility, down from his January prediction of 70%.
The lack of customary pre-approval activities, such as file changes and issuer involvement, has sparked concern among industry experts. The new estimates come at a time when the SEC still needs to provide input or interact with ETF issuers, which is a critical component of the approval process.
Based on data from reputable organizations, the previously optimistic outlook regarding the SEC’s approval of a spot Ethereum ETF has been dampened by the agency’s lack of activity and communication. The decision-making process of the SEC may be influenced by the perception of its position regarding Ethereum as a security. The SEC’s current approach, which ultimately failed, may have been influenced by SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s prior political disputes after the authorization of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a legal setback suffered by Grayscale in August 2023.
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CoinGecko reports that the current trading price of Ethereum is approximately $3,970. Shiba Inu Whales have vanished as the approval of Ethereum ETFs plummets and the volume of large transactions declines. The chances of the American Securities and Exchange Commission approving an Ethereum spot ETF have plummeted by a stunning 24%.
The analysis then proceeds to discuss the recent postponement of the US agency’s decision concerning the Ethereum ETF proposals put forth by BlackRock and Fidelity. Journalists’ discussions with insiders suggest that the regulator’s level of engagement in discourse regarding Ethereum ETFs is comparatively lower than that of their Bitcoin counterparts.
The US agency is believed to be pleased with the progress made with Bitcoin ETF approvals. Political pressure will influence the Securities and Exchange Commission’s stance on Ethereum products. Ethereum’s Dencun promotion has undeniably contributed to market optimism in the face of uncertainty surrounding ETF approval. This latest event has dampened the excitement among Bitcoin enthusiasts worldwide.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs that followed instilled optimism for Ethereum’s future development. The value of Ethereum has increased in anticipation of its imminent Dencun upgrade, which has contributed significantly to the cryptocurrency’s outstanding market performance.
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The speculative approval of ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission influenced the growth in Ethereum’s value. Polymarket predicts a 36% possibility of an Ethereum ETF approval, which has reduced to 24%. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s approach drew criticism from prominent anti-crypto politicians. These postponements will add to the current uncertainty and indicate the SEC’s distrust. Ethereum proponents anticipate that the May 23 deadline will signal a turning point in the cryptocurrency’s integration into conventional finance. Many experts have expressed doubts about the probability of ETF clearance, claiming that there are just 35% chances of getting ETFs approved.
