Bitcoin is trading above $73,000 at the time of writing this article. This has triggered a series of speculations. For starters, the community expects that the token will now surpass the milestone of $100,000 by the end of this year. Alternatively, it could do the same by the end of 2025.
Our Bitcoin speculation is that attaining a new ATH of $72,000, per the recent market closure, has paved the way for Bitcoin to enter the Euphoria Zone. It is categorized as a zone that marks a new ATH for a token, BTC in this case. The transfer of wealth from veteran investors to new investors largely drives it. It can also be understood as transferring wealth from HODLers to new investors.
A reason why it marks wealth transfer is potentially because established traders are looking to take profits from the point where BTC is dancing. New traders would better want to board the ship for two reasons: to escape FOMO and grab a piece of the dominating token. Its market cap and 24-hour volume are up by 2.03% and 17.75% right now, evidently signifying that activity is high without any compromise to the growth of BTC.
There have been sizable inflows into the sphere, and companies like MicroStrategy have heavily marked them by accumulation. If anything, the company was last seen as being closer to owning 1% of the total BTC circulation.
BTC’s current price hints at a rise of 2.02% in the last 24 hours, 9.99% in the last 7 days, and 46.90% in the last 30 days. It is interesting to note that the token was once rallying below $20,000. The approval of 11 ETF applications has changed the course for Bitcoin. Selling pressure was sustained for a while, only to calm down later when Grayscale was all done with its transactions.
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Now, the transfer of wealth is expected to be steady. The rate has been recognized at 138% since October last year, which is 2023.
Long-term holding and short-term holding distribution will happen differently. For instance, long-term holding distribution seeks an influx of new demand for a successful transaction. Short-term, on the other hand, relies on LTH and exchange balances. Both also react differently when the bull market is at its peak. LTH is suggested to drop by 14%–25% against the rise of ~83% for STH supply.
The RHODL ratio at Market ATH shows that HODLers dominate at the low of the bear market. In contrast, the speculator cohort dominates when the bull market is at its peak.
Another component that supports the entry into the Euphoria Zone is Realized Profit vs. Mean + 1 Standard Deviation. It entails Entity-Adjusted SOPR (-1) and Futures Funding Rates (Annualized). Both indicate higher value and better liquidity positioning in the direction of leverage in future markets.
Realized Cap HODL waves cited that there was a decline of 57% due to the redemption from the GBTC ETF Grayscale’s product. Other factors showcase the potential of 660k BTC transferred from LTH and 150k BTC withdrawn from the monitored exchange balances.
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That said, Bitcoin is still a risky investment driven by volatility, and prices can pick up or drop at any moment. DYOR is recommended to invest funds only after setting a risk limit and following a review of one’s assessment. The market is certainly poised to climb higher, but the risk of losing funds is equally high.
