After back-to-back days of volatility with prices moving lower, analysts are cautiously eyeing Bitcoin at the $54,000 level as a crucial support zone.
According to a recent report by QCP Broadcast, Bitcoin’s struggles in August can be traced back to the ‘BOJ crash’ at the beginning of the month, after which BTC failed to reclaim the $65,000 level.
This performance, while concerning, pales in comparison to Ethereum’s (ETH) 22.2% decline over the same period, attributed in part to alleged selling by Jump Trading.
Will September end up bearish for Bitcoin?
Looking ahead to September, historical data paints a sobering picture. Six out of the last seven September have ended in the red for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.5%. If this pattern holds true, we could see BTC trading around $55,000 by month’s end.
However, QCP Broadcast expects Bitcoin to find strong support around the $54,000 mark, which served as a springboard for its climb to $70,000 in July.
The coming week brings key economic indicators, including Unemployment Claims on September 5 and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on September 6. However, the report suggests that these macro events may have a diminished impact on crypto prices, a trend observed over the past few weeks.
In the options market, analysts expect the volatility curve to steepen further as short-term volatility decreases in a sideways market. Interestingly, there’s evidence of long-term bullish sentiment, with more long-dated call options being rolled out to March for both BTC and ETH.
One notable trade saw the purchase of 200 contracts of BTC-28MAR25-120k-C, increasing its open interest to 2,100 contracts.
For traders looking to capitalize on the current market conditions, QCP Broadcast suggests considering a Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible (CFCC) strategy.
